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Here we will review a few important aspects of the basic implementation to help orient the reader and will then focus most of our attention on the additional implementation and calibration tasks carried out during the CBCCSP. 9. Note that unlike the raw VIC flux files discussed above (Table 2), imperial units are used for these products on the study website (cubic feet per second, inches, degrees Fahrenheit). After fitting three-parameter generalized extreme value probability distributions to the annual peak flow data, the daily 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (under natural flow conditions) are estimated for both historical and future periods. Monthly hydrographs in different portions of the domain primarily reflect changes in snow accumulation and melt processes and seasonal changes in precipitation (generally wetter falls, winters, and springs and drier summers). 6 Example of a summary plot for extreme high flows (Q20, Q50, Q100, left panels) and extreme low flows (7Q10, right panels) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon for two emissions scenarios (A1B, B1) and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, 2080s). The sweeping statements in the 2007 IPCC AR4 (Solomon et al., Citation2007) regarding the scientific consensus on observed warming (unequivocal) and the direct human role in the alteration of the climate system (90% confidence) made it clear to many management professionals that the waiting game for climate change planning was nearing an end. . 6). Act relating to state agency climate leadership, S. 5560, 61st Legislature (WA 2009). 0 Thus, by selecting 10 GCM scenarios with good historical performance that also spanned the range of impacts, we effectively reduced the computational and storage requirements of the CBCCSP by approximately a factor of two. Detailed water balance summaries and streamflow data for up to 300 river locations to be specified by WDOE and other stakeholders in the region. Get the forecast for today, tonight & tomorrow's weather for Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Even with substantial cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, scientists expect our climate to continue changing over the coming decades. The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 C (5.0 C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. The CRBs cover an area over 87,000 miles 2, with an estimated volume of 50,000 miles 3, and cover about 36 percent of the state. The MRB encompasses 24 terrestrial ecosystems, providing habitat for 100 species of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians Its floodplain supports 40% of the waterfowl and wading birds in North America, and the MRB's . Report of A.G. Crook Company to Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. Model calibration and validation used a split sample approach in which calibration was performed for each of the 11 primary watersheds over a 15-year period (typically water years 19751989) and model validation was performed over a separate 15-year period (typically water years 19601974). At the other extreme, for those without any hydrologic modelling or post-processing capability the study provides a wide range of hydrologic products that can be used without any expertise in the preceding steps. Thanks to Sean Fleming (Environment Canada) for spearheading this contribution to Atmosphere-Ocean. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). 11). Rain dominant basins (DJF temperatures greater than 2C) show moderate increases in flood risk (primarily reflecting increasing storm intensity in the simulations), whereas snowmelt-dominant basins that currently flood in June show relatively little change in flood risk. This choice was imposed by WDOE. During the study (and afterwards), some stakeholders expressed interest in including less optimistic emissions scenarios (such as SRES A1FI), in order to better understand the implications of a potential worst case scenario. Dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. For climate change studies in the western United States where snow is an important element of the hydrologic cycle, the model's use of a sophisticated energy-balance snow model, which incorporates important effects on snow accumulation and melt associated with vegetation canopy (Andreadis, Storck, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009) has been a notable advantage. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Sites without modified or natural flow estimates are shown in yellow. 2012. John Day basin century climate change: +1.5 degF day temperature, +3.2 degF night temperature, -0.4 inch (2%) less precipitation. The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. These products are based solely on the HD projections listed in Table 1. How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting? The CBCCSP had a budget of about US$500 thousand (in 2010 dollars) over two years. Observations around the world demonstrate that the global atmosphere has been warming rapidly since the 1970s, with temperatures up an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in that time and expected to increase between 1 and 4 degrees by the 2030s, Pytlak said. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). The largest changes in flood risk are simulated in mixed-rain-and-snow basins. A comprehensive assessment of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10. For each streamflow location (and its associated contributing basin area), a set of identical products is available on the study web site (CIG, Citation2013b). As mentioned in the introduction, WA HB2860, which provided the bulk of the funding for the CBCCSP, also charged WDOE with identifying where US$200 million earmarked for water resources infrastructure improvements should be spent. Fine-scale calibration of the model to compensate for such errors, although technically feasible, is of questionable utility, because it essentially ensures that the model is getting something closer to the right answer for the wrong reasons, which in turn has the potential to distort the sensitivity of the model to changing future conditions (Bennett, Werner, & Schnorbus, Citation2012). Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Procedure, developed at the University of Arizona (Yapo et al., A water resources simulation model developed by Labadie (, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria. About 10 locations show negative NSE scores, which usually occurs when the simulations are strongly biased in comparison with observations. 1990 level modified streamflow 19281989. Instead, these areas respond primarily to projected changes in precipitation until late in the twenty-first century, and in fact some of these areas show modest increases in SWE (about +5%) until the middle of the twenty-first century under the combined effects of warming and increasing cool season precipitation. Final calibration results for the model are shown in Fig. The scope of work for the project called for hydrologic modellers at CIG to produce the following results: A suite of up-to-date hydrologic projections for the entire CRB (including portions of the basin in Canada) based on the CMIP3/AR4 (Meehl et al., Citation2007) GCM projections. 2013b. Snow water equivalent, the water content of the snowpack expressed as a depth, Peak snow water equivalent to cool-season precipitation ratio, Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. July temperatures hover in the 90s, with several afternoons during the summer pushing the thermometer reading as high as 100 to 105 degrees. Figure 8 shows hydrographs from selected basins with different hydrologic classifications (snowmelt-dominant, mixed-rain-and-snow, and rain-dominant) in the United States and Canada. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America and the largest river in the Pacific Northwest. A number of high-visibility studies have made use of the CBCCSP database to date, a few of which are summarized below. Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. Simulation of spatial variability in snow and frozen soil, A multi-model ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Calibration of the VIC model was carried out using an automated calibration tool called MOCOM-UA developed by the Land Surface Hydrology group at the UW, following the approach described by Yapo, Gupta, and Sorooshian (Citation1998). The SRES A1B and B1 GHG emissions scenarios (Nakienovi et al. (unpublished manuscript). Treaty Relating to Cooperative Development of the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin, United States of AmericaCanada, January 17, 1961September 16, 1964, 15 U.S.T. What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures, Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation? Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. Explore the basics of climate science arrow . Highs in the lower 80s. The two time periods also represent very different patterns of decadal climate variability in the historical record, providing a useful test in the context of simulating a changing climate. The study has constructed a state-of-the-art, end-to-end data processing sequence from raw climate model output to a suite of hydrologic modelling products that are served to the user community from a web-accessible database. Daily and monthly streamflow for each streamflow site are provided in two formats: a) raw VIC simulations, and b) bias-adjusted simulations. 1 Map of the selected streamflow locations supported by the CBCCSP. Starting from these parameter sets, an additional large-scale calibration was performed during the CBCCSP to improve model performance in reproducing historical streamflow. The basalt mostly came from fissures in the ground, perhaps sourced from a hot spot that is now beneath the Yellowstone Caldera. Glacier outlines are automatically generated from satellite imagery and are provided by, Species and Ecosystems at Risk as identified by the, Current bioclimates and modeled bioclimates for three future climate scenarios in 2080s. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Full knowledge of the preceding steps is not required to use the products obtained at any level of the study, which increases the utility of the products. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. The PRISM data for Canada were interpolated to 30 arc-second resolution data from a 2.5 arc-minute (approximately 4km) product and were statistically adjusted to remove the bias associated with the different time period (19611990 means for the 4km product). Monday: A chance of snow before 4 p.m., then a slight chance of rain and snow. Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. 5. The site at Corra Linn Dam on the Kootenay River is representative of changing hydrographs in many locations in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia. Strong bias in the simulations is commonly caused by precipitation errors (too much or too little annual precipitation), or in some cases by substantial errors in base flows because of contributions from groundwater in the actual system, which are not simulated by the VIC model (Wenger, Luce, Hamlet, Isaak, & Neville, Citation2010). NWPCC (Northwest Power and Conservation Council). 'High Uncertainty' is indicated when Mahalanobis Distance is >1. Three VIC model calibration parameters described above were varied in the optimization process, and six error metrics were used to define the objective function: squared correlation coefficient (R 2), NSE, the NSE of log-transformed data, annual volume error, mean hydrograph peak difference, RMSE, and number of sign changes in the simulated streamflow errors. Littell, J. S., Elsner, M. M., Mauger, G. S., Lutz, E. R., Hamlet, A. F., & Salath, E. P. (2011). 2013a. For the BCSD runs (for which the ability to capture key elements of the region's climate variability is arguably even more important to the outcomes) the projections based on the seven highest ranked GCMs (Table 1) were selected for each emissions scenario. Snowmelt-dominant basins in the United States, which are somewhat warmer and do not experience as much precipitation change in the scenarios, show increases in winter flow, earlier and reduced peak flow in spring, followed by an earlier streamflow recession and lower flows in late summer (e.g., Columbia River at The Dalles in Fig. 8 Monthly mean hydrographs not adjusted for bias (water year: OctoberSeptember) for four representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (upper left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (upper right), Yakima River at Parker (lower left), and the Chehalis River at Grand Mound (lower right). For more information, please visit our Permissions help page. 2860, 59th Legislature (WA 2006). West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. Des accroissements gnraliss simuls de la rhumidification du sol en automne et en hiver dans les secteurs o l'accumulation de neige en hiver est importante (sous le climat actuel) appuient les hypothses de risque accru de glissement de terrain et de transport de sdiments durant l'hiver dans le futur. Figure 1. Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Because of space limitations, we will not be able to cover these alternative modelling efforts in this paper. The six panels display results from the combination of three time periods (rows) and two emissions scenarios (columns) used in the HD downscaling process. 1555. The VIC model has been widely applied in climate change studies at both the regional scale (e.g., Christensen & Lettenmaier, Citation2007; Lettenmaier, Wood, Palmer, Wood, & Stakhiv, Citation1999; Maurer, Citation2007; Maurer & Duffy, Citation2005; Payne et al., Citation2004; Van Rheenen, Wood, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004) and global scale (e.g., Adam, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009; Nijssen, O'Donnell, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2001). These extensive and ongoing research activities have also been materially supported by the long-term outreach and education programs of CIG, which have, from the outset, fully recognized the transboundary nature of the CRB (Hamlet, Citation2003; Miles et al., Citation2000) and responded by promoting sustained, long-term interaction with CRB researchers and stakeholders in the United States and Canada (Hamlet, Citation2011). We used 50 parameter sets to define the initial optimization parameter space, of which the 25 best parameter sets advance in each evolution of the optimization. Three statistical downscaling approaches were selected or developed for the study: Composite Delta (CD): regional average projections compiled from 10 GCMs (Elsner et al., Citation2010), Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD): (Salath, Citation2005; Salath, Mote, & Wiley, Citation2007; Wood, Leung, Sridhar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Wood, Maurer, Kumar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002), Hybrid Delta (HD): (Hamlet et al., 2010a). These approaches were further developed and refined during the WACCIA in 2009 (Miles, Elsner, Littell, Binder, & Lettenmaier, Citation2010), which included assessments of aquatic and forest ecosystem impacts (Littell et al., Citation2010; Mantua, Tohver, & Hamlet, Citation2010). The USFS and USFWS studies have supported a number of high-visibility ecosystem studies, including assessment of the impacts of changing snowpack on wolverine populations (McKelvey et al., Citation2011) and subsequent proposed ESA listing of wolverine populations, and comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts to trout species over the west (Wenger et al., Citation2011). Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. This was coordinated through the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC), a sub-committee of the Joint Operating Committee which was established through direct funding Memorandum of Agreements between BPA, Reclamation, and the USACE. Fig. The climate of the high mountain regionsthe pramos, ranging from about 10,000 to 15,000 feet (3,000 to 4,600 metres)is characterized by average temperatures below 50 F (10 C), fog, overcast skies, frequent winds, and light rain or drizzle. Water Level Models, Floodplain Wetland Inundation, and System Zones, Using expressed behaviour of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) to evaluate the vulnerability of upriver migrants under future hydrological regimes: Management implications and conservation planning. Current weather in Queens Cup Basin and forecast for today, tomorrow, and next 14 days The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study. The HD method was also selected as the basis for the main summary products derived for each river location (see description below), primarily because it was capable of providing good performance over the complete range of products produced by the CBCCSP (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Peak flows actually increase at many sites in Canada because of increasing fall, winter, and spring precipitation in this part of the domain, although the peak flow also occurs about a month earlier. Climatic Change 113:499-524. Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. Although results could potentially vary in different areas of the model domain, these results support the hypothesis that only modest improvements in validation statistics would result from individual calibration of additional streamflow sites within each sub-basin. (2005). Thursday Sunny. However, our goal in this case was not to reduce the range of uncertainty by selecting a smaller group of GCMs. 7). We use cookies to improve your website experience. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakienovi et al. Data from the CBCCSP are currently supporting two CIG studies funded by the LCCs and the CSC, including a study of impacts to wetlands in the PNW (funded by the North Pacific LCC and the PNWCSC) and a study assessing climatic and hydrologic extremes and their effects on ecosystems over the western United States (funded by the PNWCSC). Detailed forecast for Lower Columbia Basin of Washington Rest Of Today Partly sunny. Crook, A. G. (1993). Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Lows in the lower 50s. Note the relative insensitivity of SWE to warming in the coldest, and most heavily snowmelt-dominant, areas in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia in comparison with the rest of the domain. Thus, each site is bias-corrected using either naturalized or modified flow but not both.