The 1970s Steelers gave us one last entertaining Super Bowl before its dynasty ended. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. The Vikings uncharacteristically had a poor defense in 2020, ranking 29th in points allowed after finishing as a top 10 unit the previous five seasons. They also secured the first ring in franchise history. Seattle Seahawks +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Will we see the first-half Seahawks (6-1, 34 points per game! Let's dive into the 2021 FPI projections with the 10 biggest takeaways. The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And we'll start with the Chiefs: More: That doesn't even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner. Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. Theres a reason teams from the NFC North are so low here, and its the schedule. Kind of. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. That decision is based on two factors: Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. The Cowboys first Super Bowl win was a snooze-fest. The agony of defeat. The game was so bad that the MVP award did not even go to a member of the winning team. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. At 133, this New England Patriots offense was extraordinary, but their defense was lacking and kept them out of the top 20. 1 pick. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to It was all downhill for Chicago after Devin Hester returned the opening kick for a touchdown. Denver has eight games against FPI's bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. W. 23-20. Over the past three years, Cousins is seventh in passer rating (103.6), second in completion percentage (69.03), fifth in passing touchdowns (91), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.77). Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. Andy Reids never-ending two-minute drill robbed us of what could have been an exciting ending. The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. Slightly. A smart strategy? Los Angeles is going to score points this year. Two good-but-not-great teams playing an uncompetitive game with an unforgettable MVP? Denver got out to a 10-0 lead before Washington dropped a Super Bowl-record 35 points in the second quarter on the Broncos defense. and a dramatic finish. Drafting Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was a questionable move, especially since Cincinnati's atrocious offensive line led to franchise quarterback Joe Burrow tearing his ACL in his rookie season. It is not that these teams were not deserving of a Super Bowl, but rather that they do not stack up when compared to the greatest units the NFL has ever seen. Pittsburgh was just 7-5 through 12 games. 27. Ranked below are the 20 worst NFL players to win a Super Bowl since 2000. Then Jim was thoroughly outcoached at every point by Sean Payton. But the Super Bowl? 2023 NFL Draft odds: Will Georgia's Stetson Bennett get selected? 3 overall pick Trey Lance entering the season. The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. Philly was actually favored before the game, but Oakland made the betting line look silly early on, getting out to a 21-3 lead. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. 16. Just as importantly, no team lost more games to injury last year than the 49ers, And thats at every position. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). The Jaguars are going to be better than the 1-15 team that played last year, and could actually contend for eight or nine wins if the defense becomes a top 20 unit (ranked 31st in points and yards allowed in 2020). And that's embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. It was called the "Blunder Bowl" for a reason. This 1969 Minnesota Vikings team was elite and ranked first for both points scored and points against. Both halves of this one were capped off by remarkable plays. Here are the 10 most likely Super Bowl LV matchups: The Green Bay Packers are clearly Super Bowl contenders. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Osi Umenyiora was the team's only starting Pro Bowler and the Giants trailed in every postseason game they played. So their overall grade suffered. 22. The least memorable of the Giants four Super Bowl wins also happened to be their most dominant. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. Arizona Cardinals +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Yes, they got older with J.J. Watt and A.J. Those numbers should improve under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, as the Panthers will find out if Darnold can become a franchise quarterback. This game did feature one of the best defenses in NFL history, but watching it dismantle a Kerry Collins-led offense wasnt all that exciting. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. The Bills could not close the deal in this four-year span, and most frustrating of all, all these teams were pretty well-balanced. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. 12:11 pm ET, NFL combine 2023 tracker: Top performances, highlights, Jones assures Cowboys still interested in Beckham, NFL Combine 2023: Colossal Richardson breaks QB records, NFL combine measurements: Full list of WR, TE numbers, Jackson Mahomes accused of assault at Kansas restaurant, Agent's Take: Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Teams that never won SB that have best chance in 2021, Mock Draft: Panthers, Colts trade up for QBs, Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Richardson breaks QB record in vertical jump, Pascal robbed at gunpoint, assaulted; WR 'doing fine', Bryce Young measures similar to former No. It truly is a remarkable tale, but the Patriots were nothing special on the way there. The team had a 142 record and the best offense in the league averaging about 34 points per game, Joe Theismann and Jon Riggins were stars. 17. Green, but for a young team with a young coach, locker room leadership was needed last year down the stretch when they lost five of seven and missed the playoffs.. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. Aaron Rodgers capped off a brilliant playoff run with a masterful performance against one of the leagues best defenses. Aaron Rodgers hasnt been back since 2011., The Chiefs have gone to two straight. 1980 was also the final year of "Stickum" being allowed in the NFL, and cornerback Lester Hayes used it to his full advantage, reeling off 18 interceptions in 20 games. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. Herbert has immensely changed the fortunes of a franchise that mired in mediocrity during Philip Rivers' final years. 19. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. And they do return all 11 starters on offense and defense., If they get by the Rams in Week 3, theyll be favored in every game the rest of the way, and youll regret not taking a flier that you can potentially hedge later., 2. FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). A game remembered more for trick plays and bad refereeing than the actual quality of either team, the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious in their effort to send Jerome Bettis off into the sunset in style. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. Super Bowl MVP Pick. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) Defensively, they were 22nd in points scored against, and it showed in the Super Bowl. That they have to play each other twice and are vying for the same divisional crown are limiting factors when it comes to win total and a chance to earn the coveted top seed in the AFC. The defense got a huge boost with the signing of Haason Reddick and top 10 pick Jaycee Horn, but Carolina still has to deal with Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the NFC South. Something for everyone interested in hair, makeup, style, and body positivity. They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. Bart Starr won MVP with only 13 completions. ELEVEN! Their defense back in the day was shutting teams down and they had great leadership in Fran Tarkenton. But itll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before Halloween. I have multiple tickets on the Jags - win the division, wins over, win the Super Bowl. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. 5 offense. The first half ended with James Harrisons lung-busting interception return. What should have been a great quarterback matchup Marino vs. Montana turned into a blowout as the Dolphins gunslinger couldnt keep up with the 49ers surgeon. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. A.J. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. Ryan Tannehill has been a top five quarterback over the last two seasons and it hasn't been talked about enough. Dolphins fullback Larry Csonka plows between Vikings LB Jeff Siemon (50) and safety Paul Krause for one of his two touchdowns in the Dolphins 24-7 Super Bowl VIII win. You can make a case that every team that endured the best shots from every one of their opponents throughout the season, found a way to win enough Maybe the biggest forgotten gem in sports history. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. In one of our 20,000 sims, the Eagles took the crown at 5-11-1. Why? CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL I did not mean to rhyme there. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. With Aaron Rodgers' future in limbo, the Vikings could be primed to win the NFC North. A 133 record, and a top 5 offense and defense, this was the derailing of a potential dynasty. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse. Jacksonville Jaguars +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total), "Dont tell me what you think tell me whats in your portfolio. FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. Id say so, yes.. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? A 124 record and a solid defense? Give them five years to become a dynasty. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. 6-keys: media/spln/nfl/reg/free/stories, at An 11-5 record was good enough for first place in the AFC East, yet New England was 5-5 through 10 games. WebJim Caldwell is may be the worst coach to ever make it to the Super Bowl, but he didn't win. Cleveland already has one of the game's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and cornerbacks in Denzel Ward. Kansas City Chiefs +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total), Its really hard to get to the Super Bowl. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. Theyve won 35 regular-season games in the last three seasons for a reason., When narratives build for example, that Lamar Jackson cant win in the playoffs you can find an edge fading them., 1. Dallas got out to an early 10-point lead and never looked back. A better offensive line will help Cousins out immensely, especially with playmakers like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielenand Irv Smith. The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. As Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers went back and forth to win the title, Super Bowl LIV is the 13th-best Super Bowl on our list. The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. A great defense and front seven, but their running game hit on all cylinders with 2.305 total team rushing yards.